As far as "how much silicon will it cost me", the datasheets should provide an exact number of LUTs that are available in a device. That should be one of your metrics as to what's available in a device. Registers, memory blocks, DSP blocks, IO, PLLs, etc. are other parameters to watch. You don't need to worry about silicon, per se, but how much of a particular device resources are used. Who cares how many LUTs a design takes if the device doesn't have enough IO.
As for how to code a lookup table, I strongly suggest not to do this, as you'll get bogged down in the nitty-gritty and never do anything useful. Concentrate on writing at a higher level, like your VHDL. If it doesn't infer what you want, ask what needs to be done in your code to get proper inference. Note that there are some things which can't be inferred, like PLLs or certain DSP block configurations, which the Quartus Megawizard is used for creating. Come back to this board if there's something specific you can't find.
If, after all that, you really need to write a LUT equation, reference the Designing with Low-Level Primitives User Guide:
http://www.altera.com/literature/ug/ug_low_level.pdf