I would go this way:
1. Calculate required bandwith for the RAM Interface (with overhead for refresh ...)
The bandwith is speed grade dependent!
2. Estimate the pin count you need and select an appripriate package
3. Are there board layout requirements such as ball pitch size or package size?
5. Have a look at the device datasheet, connection guideline and errata sheet to ensure that there are no limitation in that package that might hurt you, keep them in mind
4. See what LE densities are availabe and are pin compatible to each other
5. Instantiate a memory controller that fits your setup in your design using Quartus II. You can leave out the actual timing values, just use a preset and the bit width and put some glue logic around it.
Use the highest density for your package
6. Compile and see how much logic the controller itself needs.
7. If you already have the code for the camera interface, add it to get a better estimation.
8. Select the device with the LEs you need. Stay below 90% ressource usage to ease timing closure.
If you need any estimation, I would go for the 10k device (min). But to stay on the safe side, use the highest density for the development and go to the cheaper one for production.